The forecast for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is looking rather stormy these days. Thanks to a slash-and-burn approach led by the Trump Administration and Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), over 10% of NOAA’s workforce has been sent packing. Even the National Weather Service (NWS), the folks who tell us when to grab an umbrella, are caught in the gale. But fear not, the future of weather forecasting might just be in the capable hands of for-profit companies. After all, why rely on a century-and-a-half-old government service when private corporations can tell you if it’s going to rain—for a fee?
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick seems to think efficiency is the silver lining. During his Senate confirmation hearing, he promised not to dismantle NOAA but hinted that the NWS could be “more efficient and less expensive.” The Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025, which Trump has taken a liking to, goes a step further, suggesting NOAA stick to gathering data while private companies take over the forecasting. Apparently, studies show these companies are better at reading clouds than government meteorologists. Who knew a storm warning could become a premium service?
Of course, cutting government costs comes with casualties. DOGE recently laid off 800 NOAA employees, while another 500 took buyouts. There’s even talk of canceling leases on NWS facilities, including a critical Maryland center. The result? Fewer weather balloons launched, disrupted hurricane modeling, and a lot of nervous meteorologists. But hey, it’s all in the name of saving taxpayer money—never mind that NWS services cost about $4 per American each year. That’s practically pocket change compared to the billions in damages extreme weather causes annually.
Critics warn that handing over weather forecasting to private companies might leave low-income areas in the dark—literally—when disaster strikes. Even AccuWeather, a major player in private forecasting, doesn’t want full privatization, acknowledging the NWS’s critical role in alerting the public. And what about the legal mess of being the sole disaster alerter? Trump’s own NOAA nominee, Neil Jacobs, isn’t so sure companies will want that responsibility. But maybe this is just the start. If the Post Office and Amtrak are next on Musk’s hit list, we might as well start checking our wallets before checking the weather.
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